Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30    123.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  23.9  21.7  32.7  33.7  37.8  39.7  35.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  40.0  36.0  33.0  36.0  40.0  38.0  37.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  29.0  49.0   9.0  31.0  27.0  40.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  59.0  64.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   9.0   9.0   3.0  12.0   9.0  15.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.3%        9.0%       10.2%
 25kt / 24h       21.5%       34.2%       27.9%
 30kt / 24h       16.4%       20.8%       18.6%
 35kt / 24h       16.4%       20.8%       18.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       19.9%       11.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%       20.2%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        7.6%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        7.4%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.8%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        3.1%        2.4%