Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    123.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  24.9  34.6  38.0  36.2  44.7  32.9  21.7  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  55.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  37.0   3.0 -42.0 -22.0  19.0  64.0  58.0  N  N  U VU VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  62.0  65.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0  -5.0 -10.0   1.0  12.0  17.0  16.0  N  N  F  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        3.9%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.0%       13.1%       10.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        5.0%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%        5.0%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.0%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        6.1%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        1.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        2.1%        2.7%