Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  28.5  30.0  28.2  33.7  29.0  19.8  32.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  61.0  63.0  66.0  62.0  47.0   8.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  66.2  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -23.0   0.0  25.0  14.0  81.0 100.0  52.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  59.0  64.0  70.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   2.0   8.0   6.0  11.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.5%       20.6%       31.6%
 25kt / 24h       41.2%       42.3%       41.7%
 30kt / 24h       41.2%       34.2%       37.7%
 35kt / 24h       41.2%       34.2%       37.7%
 40kt / 24h       13.3%       34.2%       23.8%
 45kt / 36h       18.2%       19.8%       19.0%
 55kt / 36h       10.2%        8.1%        9.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        9.7%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        3.1%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        2.1%        1.9%