Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.5  35.3  28.0  15.4  13.7  29.2  49.9  N  U  U  N  F  F  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  40.0  36.0  35.0  34.0  22.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  61.2   6.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0  -3.0   2.0  28.0  60.0  70.0  79.0 179.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  62.0  72.0  67.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0   2.0  10.0  11.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.7%       15.2%       19.5%
 25kt / 24h       28.3%       33.4%       30.8%
 30kt / 24h       28.3%       28.3%       28.3%
 35kt / 24h       28.3%       28.3%       28.3%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       24.8%       15.9%
 45kt / 36h       14.5%       20.3%       17.4%
 55kt / 36h        6.0%        8.6%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%       16.5%       11.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        4.8%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%