Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  30.9  24.2  17.2   9.5  18.3  37.9  69.8  N  U  N  F  F  F  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  43.0  33.0  13.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  65.5   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  33.0  40.0  51.0  69.0  95.0  85.0 158.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  67.0  69.0  64.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  18.0   6.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.1%       18.3%       26.2%
 25kt / 24h       48.8%       51.3%       50.1%
 30kt / 24h       48.1%       47.2%       47.7%
 35kt / 24h       48.1%       47.2%       47.7%
 40kt / 24h       18.3%       47.2%       32.7%
 45kt / 36h       35.4%       34.4%       34.9%
 55kt / 36h       19.9%       17.7%       18.8%
 55kt / 48h       20.3%       32.6%       26.5%
 70kt / 48h        8.4%        9.8%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%