Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  23.9  17.9  15.0  25.1  46.0  77.7  76.8  N  N  F  F  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  50.0  48.0  42.0  27.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  18.6 -24.2 -18.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  59.0  79.0  68.0  89.0 102.0 153.0  99.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  61.0  65.0  70.0  68.0  60.0  63.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -4.0 -12.0  -5.0  -2.0 -15.0  59.0  49.0  N  F  F  F  N VF VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       57.4%       17.2%       37.3%
 25kt / 24h       46.3%       41.6%       44.0%
 30kt / 24h       40.2%       36.0%       38.1%
 35kt / 24h       40.2%       36.0%       38.1%
 40kt / 24h       40.2%       33.4%       36.8%
 45kt / 36h       64.7%       27.7%       46.2%
 55kt / 36h       18.6%       14.5%       16.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%