Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  24.6  12.8  10.3  28.9  48.5  67.5  82.9  N  N  F  F  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  30.0  23.0  16.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  48.5  -8.4 -30.3 -33.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  48.0  65.0  77.0  59.0 100.0 103.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  20.0  18.0  67.0   6.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%        4.7%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h       17.8%       23.5%       20.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.7%       19.9%       16.3%
 35kt / 24h        9.0%       19.9%       14.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%       16.6%       12.0%
 45kt / 36h       18.1%        6.4%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        2.2%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%