Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.40    124.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  26.3  34.7  48.8  71.1  78.9  83.1  58.8  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.6  44.4  16.5 -13.2 -27.3 -20.8 -22.4 -27.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  65.0  86.0 112.0 154.0  79.0  89.0  42.0  F  N  F  F VF  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  72.0  68.0  56.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.0  35.0  37.0  57.0  66.0   0.0 -47.0 -26.0 VU VU VU VU VU  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        4.6%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        1.2%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons