Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.60    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        66.9  72.1  75.8  86.0  99.6 100.8  63.7  86.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         18.1  18.5  20.1  19.2  13.7  19.7  14.0  10.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0  84.0  30.0  11.0  16.0 -25.0  64.0  38.0  F  N  N  U  U VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  66.0  60.0  54.0  46.0  42.0  40.0  40.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 110.0  82.0  27.0 -12.0  -8.0 -14.0  -9.0  11.0 VU VU VU  F  F VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons