Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.00    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    163.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        76.2  78.1  82.5  82.9  68.4  49.3  74.1  84.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.3  34.1  38.4  40.8  41.4  35.7  28.9  18.1 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  47.0  69.0  51.0  40.0  16.0 -18.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  58.0  66.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  70.0  55.0  23.0  77.0  40.0  24.0  28.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons