Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    129.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  29.4  23.2  16.6  20.6  22.5  28.8  28.7  U  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  126.0 126.0 126.0 125.0 119.0 101.0  74.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  42.0  73.0 109.0  50.0  76.0  33.0  13.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -7.0  -9.0  -4.0  16.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        8.1%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h       48.5%       62.5%       55.5%
 30kt / 24h       24.8%       38.3%       31.5%
 35kt / 24h       20.0%       38.3%       29.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       30.9%       16.3%
 45kt / 36h       38.9%       77.3%       58.1%
 55kt / 36h       29.1%       60.0%       44.6%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       33.6%       42.3%
 70kt / 48h       33.6%       66.5%       50.1%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       74.0%       68.2%