Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  15.4  15.7  20.2  19.0  14.9  15.6  19.5  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  94.0  99.0 119.0  80.0  59.0  49.0  32.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  42.0  66.0  36.0  20.0 -51.0  -4.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   2.0  -5.0   0.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%       16.9%       14.4%
 25kt / 24h       48.4%       63.5%       56.0%
 30kt / 24h       31.1%       54.6%       42.8%
 35kt / 24h       27.3%       54.6%       41.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%       48.1%       27.0%
 45kt / 36h       38.7%       53.2%       45.9%
 55kt / 36h       25.4%       32.9%       29.1%
 55kt / 48h       47.3%       44.4%       45.8%
 70kt / 48h       22.5%       21.0%       21.7%
 65kt / 72h       33.9%       32.2%       33.1%