Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    128.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  18.5  19.3  18.2  23.0  12.4  15.3  18.2  F  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  121.0 116.0  95.0  82.0  69.0  62.0  64.0  43.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  66.0  36.0  25.0  31.0 -34.0   3.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0  10.0   9.0   3.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.7%       45.8%       53.8%
 25kt / 24h       77.8%       80.4%       79.1%
 30kt / 24h       77.8%       78.5%       78.2%
 35kt / 24h       77.8%       78.5%       78.2%
 40kt / 24h       28.4%       76.3%       52.3%
 45kt / 36h       56.7%       64.2%       60.5%
 55kt / 36h       39.0%       47.5%       43.3%
 55kt / 48h       49.4%       52.6%       51.0%
 70kt / 48h       23.9%       28.8%       26.3%
 65kt / 72h       26.1%       31.3%       28.7%