Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  18.3  20.0  20.8  18.0  16.0  16.7  17.1  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  97.0 132.0 101.0  61.0  60.0  28.0  21.0  N  F VF  F  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  27.0 -12.0  30.0 -59.0   3.0  25.0  48.0  N  U  U  N VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   7.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       79.4%       63.0%       71.2%
 25kt / 24h       94.1%       88.4%       91.3%
 30kt / 24h       94.1%       88.4%       91.3%
 35kt / 24h       94.1%       88.4%       91.3%
 40kt / 24h       51.9%       87.7%       69.8%
 45kt / 36h       64.2%       72.0%       68.1%
 55kt / 36h       48.8%       59.9%       54.3%
 55kt / 48h       45.9%       55.5%       50.7%
 70kt / 48h       21.2%       31.5%       26.4%
 65kt / 72h       13.8%       28.1%       21.0%