Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     94.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  24.9  22.6  21.9  15.5  13.8  18.0  34.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  134.0  83.0  60.0  60.0  55.0  27.0  20.0  17.0 VF  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  72.3  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  20.0  11.0 -55.0 -12.0  27.0  53.0  72.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0   3.0  -2.0  -6.0   1.0  11.0 -31.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       80.0%       51.7%       65.9%
 25kt / 24h       82.6%       71.4%       77.0%
 30kt / 24h       82.6%       71.4%       77.0%
 35kt / 24h       82.6%       71.4%       77.0%
 40kt / 24h       34.0%       65.3%       49.6%
 45kt / 36h       64.5%       52.7%       58.6%
 55kt / 36h       32.5%       39.0%       35.7%
 55kt / 48h       28.8%       29.0%       28.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%       11.7%        8.1%