Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  21.9  19.1  19.9  16.2  31.0  41.7  71.2  N  N  N  N  F  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  62.0  64.0  49.0  32.0  24.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  26.0 -36.8  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -20.0 -18.0  24.0   9.0  86.0 104.0 114.0 VU VU  U  U  U  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0   0.0   9.0  20.0  -2.0 -27.0 -97.0  N  U  N  U VU  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.4%       15.3%       23.3%
 25kt / 24h       33.5%       30.0%       31.7%
 30kt / 24h       33.5%       26.8%       30.1%
 35kt / 24h       33.5%       26.8%       30.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%       18.4%       11.9%
 45kt / 36h       48.8%       20.0%       34.4%
 55kt / 36h        9.3%       11.0%       10.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%