Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  16.8  20.5  20.1  16.0  33.4  61.0  80.3  N  F  N  N  F  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  40.0  31.0  24.0  21.0  19.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  59.3  60.0  10.0 -52.4  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -14.0  30.0  11.0  62.0 100.0 143.0 145.0 VU  U  N  U  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  63.0  54.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   8.0   5.0  13.0  -4.0  15.0  13.0  N  N  U  N  U  F  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.0%       13.3%       21.1%
 25kt / 24h       24.5%       19.6%       22.1%
 30kt / 24h       24.5%       15.9%       20.2%
 35kt / 24h       24.5%       15.9%       20.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%       11.6%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h       47.5%       12.0%       29.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%