Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  19.7  20.6  17.7  32.3  59.9  78.1  81.1  F  N  N  F  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  45.0  38.0  29.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  44.6  14.4  -1.4 -45.4 -36.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  46.0  35.0  42.0  73.0  95.0 144.0 105.0  U  N  N  N  N  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  50.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0  -9.0 -77.0  13.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  F VF  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.3%       16.4%       32.3%
 25kt / 24h       27.0%       19.8%       23.4%
 30kt / 24h       27.0%       15.1%       21.0%
 35kt / 24h       27.0%       15.1%       21.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.7%       11.2%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%