Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  20.2  24.0  19.6  42.3  66.7  77.2  70.4  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  21.0  20.0  18.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  31.5 -24.3 -46.6 -48.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  11.0  -1.0  62.0  95.0 140.0 141.0  56.0  N  U  U  N  F VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  57.0  49.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0  24.0  23.0   8.0  12.0  -4.0 -23.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%        5.2%        8.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%        7.5%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%        5.2%        5.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%        5.2%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        3.2%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%