Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  26.2  17.6  25.7  55.8  75.9  82.1  54.5  N  N  F  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  36.0  29.0  29.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  39.3  40.0  -8.5 -72.9 -45.8 -63.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0   0.0  64.0 123.0 104.0 122.0  95.0  94.0  N  U  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  53.0  61.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  25.0  22.0  22.0 -39.0 -16.0   1.0  25.0  U VU VU VU VF VF  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.0%        5.8%       11.4%
 25kt / 24h        9.7%        8.3%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.4%        2.7%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%