Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  26.1  43.5  54.4  81.1  74.5  37.0  25.4  F  N VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  35.0  21.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.3  50.0  19.8 -22.3 -59.1 -37.4 -52.8 -63.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0 121.0  96.0 130.0 167.0  78.0  88.0  30.0  N  F  F  F VF  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  65.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  73.0  79.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0 -21.0   0.0   8.0  20.0 -19.0  N  N  N VF  N  U VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.0%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons