Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.50    129.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.3  72.9  84.2  79.3  49.2  22.2  21.8  22.1 VU VU VU VU VU  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         15.7 -21.8 -14.5  -2.3 -16.1 -26.2 -28.3 -29.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   152.0 145.0 161.0  74.0  73.0  57.0  56.0   3.0 VF VF VF  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  55.0  49.0  57.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -63.0 -33.0  47.0  -8.0   0.0 -13.0 -12.0  -9.0 VF VF VU  F  N VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons