Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.70    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        73.5  83.7  85.2  78.3  35.8  27.7  22.2  21.2 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -18.2  -6.8   2.7  -6.8 -18.5 -23.0 -24.1 -24.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   143.0 154.0  83.0  87.0  46.0  14.0  32.0  17.0 VF VF  N  F  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  58.0  50.0  52.0  66.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  74.0 -12.0 -42.0  10.0  56.0 -19.0 -19.0  N VU  F VF  U VU VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons