Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.80    129.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        77.4  83.5  77.4  59.4  27.6  20.3  17.2  20.8 VU VU VU VU  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -7.4  -2.3  -6.3 -10.5 -15.0 -16.8 -17.5 -17.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   162.0 128.0  76.0 101.0  69.0  31.0  59.0  42.0 VF  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  51.0  52.0  58.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  66.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  72.0 -18.0 -32.0 -20.0   0.0  19.0  -1.0  -3.0 VU VF VF VF  N VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons