Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102020 200903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     45.50    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        76.2  72.5  51.4  27.7  22.4  23.0  23.5  26.8 VU VU VU  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -1.0  -7.3  -9.6 -11.6 -13.5 -13.8 -14.1 -14.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  73.0  95.0  64.0  51.0  24.0  83.0   7.0  F  N  F  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  66.0  73.0  75.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -18.0  -2.0 -15.0  33.0  -3.0   6.0   0.0 VF VF  N VF VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons