Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  21.0  21.9  23.0  25.5  29.9  30.2  34.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  89.0  86.0  88.0  99.0 116.0 110.0 114.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  51.0  38.0  37.0  43.0  87.0  96.0 114.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  69.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        5.6%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       21.2%       34.7%       28.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       15.0%       14.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       15.0%       11.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%       15.0%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h       21.1%       41.3%       31.2%
 55kt / 36h       15.2%       18.0%       16.6%
 55kt / 48h       33.7%       22.7%       28.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       18.3%       21.5%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       38.3%       50.4%