Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    144.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  25.0  25.2  30.2  35.2  36.0  31.2  35.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  87.0  84.0  85.0  86.0  94.0 144.0  71.0  F  N  N  N  N  F VF  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  55.0  72.0  76.0  27.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   7.0  10.0  31.0  44.0  44.0  55.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        3.8%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       15.1%       25.2%       20.1%
 30kt / 24h        8.6%        9.9%        9.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%        9.9%        7.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        9.6%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h       11.3%       20.4%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%        6.7%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h       16.6%       10.4%       13.5%
 70kt / 48h        8.8%        4.0%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h       41.4%        9.8%       25.6%