Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    142.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     94.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  29.6  23.9  27.0  23.3  26.2  19.6  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  98.0 104.0 110.0  99.0 115.0  59.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  84.0  62.0  55.0  64.0  54.0  67.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   1.0   3.0  17.0   2.0  12.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.9%       18.1%       21.0%
 25kt / 24h       58.6%       65.4%       62.0%
 30kt / 24h       45.6%       55.4%       50.5%
 35kt / 24h       45.6%       55.4%       50.5%
 40kt / 24h        8.7%       46.5%       27.6%
 45kt / 36h       38.3%       56.5%       47.4%
 55kt / 36h       23.1%       34.6%       28.9%
 55kt / 48h       42.2%       36.2%       39.2%
 70kt / 48h       21.7%       20.4%       21.0%
 65kt / 72h       43.0%       32.0%       37.5%