Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  28.2  29.2  29.7  32.6  33.5  36.0  43.2  U  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  112.0 102.0  92.0  84.0  83.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  84.0  55.0  68.0  65.0  67.0  50.0 111.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  68.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   3.0  12.0  14.0   0.0 -24.0  -6.0  N  N  N  U  U  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.5%       22.4%       32.5%
 25kt / 24h       59.3%       59.5%       59.4%
 30kt / 24h       50.4%       46.2%       48.3%
 35kt / 24h       50.4%       46.2%       48.3%
 40kt / 24h       14.6%       44.6%       29.6%
 45kt / 36h       32.2%       38.7%       35.5%
 55kt / 36h       18.8%       18.3%       18.6%
 55kt / 48h       19.2%       19.5%       19.4%
 70kt / 48h       11.0%        8.9%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h       14.8%       10.5%       12.7%