Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    139.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  20.9  23.3  21.3  27.8  39.8  33.7  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  81.0  79.0  77.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  81.0  54.0  29.0  69.0  51.0 103.0 102.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0 -11.0  -6.0 -19.0 -55.0 -46.0 -81.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.2%       30.9%       45.0%
 25kt / 24h       64.7%       66.7%       65.7%
 30kt / 24h       60.7%       64.6%       62.6%
 35kt / 24h       60.2%       64.6%       62.4%
 40kt / 24h       41.5%       63.7%       52.6%
 45kt / 36h       40.2%       32.4%       36.3%
 55kt / 36h       22.3%       15.2%       18.7%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       18.7%       18.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        7.6%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%        9.7%        7.9%