Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    135.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  24.8  25.7  27.0  26.9  28.2  38.0  63.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  64.0  57.0  60.0  65.0  59.0  55.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  32.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  74.0  53.0  39.0 111.0  91.0 105.0 101.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   5.0  10.0  19.0  -9.0 -15.0 -33.0-115.0  U  N  U VU  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       54.7%       14.1%       34.4%
 25kt / 24h       24.4%       15.8%       20.1%
 30kt / 24h       18.8%        5.7%       12.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%