Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    135.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  20.9  18.7  21.8  23.9  22.6  25.1  31.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  47.0  44.0  48.0  70.0  55.0  50.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  24.6  -3.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  61.0  89.0 120.0 103.0  98.0  61.0  83.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  69.0  72.0  69.0  75.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   7.0  17.0  21.0  27.0  11.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       47.4%       11.0%       29.2%
 25kt / 24h       23.0%       13.9%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%