Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    133.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  29.1  24.6  28.2  22.6  35.0  58.3  73.2  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  46.0  55.0  61.0  63.0  28.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  22.3 -30.8 -64.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  74.0 103.0 110.0 104.0  63.0 167.0 132.0  N  N  F  F  F  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  75.0  73.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  79.0  71.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.0  41.0  29.0  38.0  27.0 -24.0 -82.0-122.0 VU VU VU VU VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        0.9%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        1.5%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%