Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    132.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  24.6  28.2  30.1  33.9  41.8  61.2  80.4  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  28.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  15.7 -59.6 -88.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0 103.0 110.0 100.0  92.0 121.0 171.0 101.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  77.0  76.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  40.0  29.0  39.0  38.0  -1.0 -46.0-123.0 -34.0 VU VU VU VU  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        1.1%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        1.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%