Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  28.3  21.3  24.0  32.0  54.7  74.1  73.7  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  27.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  31.5 -54.9 -71.7 -71.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 106.0  92.0  88.0 123.0 165.0  96.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  64.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.0  47.0  23.0   9.0 -13.0 -63.0 -36.0  -9.0 VU VU VU  U VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%