Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    131.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  16.4  22.0  26.2  42.4  62.0  70.2  61.6  N  F  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  53.0  52.0  46.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  37.9  -4.2 -56.5 -70.9 -69.9  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0 109.0 105.0  86.0 127.0  92.0  69.0  25.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0   8.0   0.0  16.0 -35.0 -77.0  -3.0 -40.0  U  U  N  U VF VF  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        3.4%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.7%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%