Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.20    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.6  49.7  51.6  58.3  51.5  27.5  17.9  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -7.4 -20.9 -17.2 -36.8 -29.7 -25.3 -25.3 -27.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 114.0  89.0  78.0  76.0  62.0  37.0  -5.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  52.0  54.0  60.0  62.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  -8.0 -13.0  -5.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0  N  F VF  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons