Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112020 200907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.70    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.1  57.5  47.9  48.7  54.9  70.7  86.4  78.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.5  15.6  16.3  17.1  14.2  10.4  10.4   9.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  87.0  86.0  54.0  38.0  -9.0  27.0  14.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0  -6.0   0.0 -12.0 -55.0-123.0 -26.0   3.0 VF  F  N  F VF VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons