Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122020 200912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50    138.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  36.9  34.6  37.5  45.5  51.2  60.4  59.9  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  31.0  24.0  34.0  73.0   8.0   7.0  27.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  35.0  67.0 100.0  73.0  34.0  48.0  15.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  53.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  20.0   1.0 -33.0   5.0  U VU VU VU VU  N VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.7%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%