Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122020 200912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90    139.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  39.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%        1.7%        3.3%