Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132020 200916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    117.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  37.7  40.6  40.0  33.4  37.1  37.3  49.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  67.0  73.0  70.0  53.0  67.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  84.3  96.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0  99.0 109.0 123.0  63.0  72.0 134.0 123.0  F  F  F  F  N  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  89.0  91.0  93.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -9.0 -10.0 -11.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        3.7%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       19.4%       26.1%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%       11.1%        9.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       11.1%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        7.8%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       23.8%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        7.6%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.0%        8.9%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        6.4%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        5.2%        3.2%