Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132020 200916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  44.4  41.6  41.7  33.4  40.2  42.4  48.6  U VU VU VU  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  91.0  88.0  80.0  65.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  88.0  59.2  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0 110.0 123.0  91.0  72.0 108.0 154.0 103.0  F  F  F  F  N  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  83.0  92.0  93.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0 -11.0  -7.0  -3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.3%        3.2%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       19.3%       20.6%       20.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%        7.6%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%        7.6%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        5.8%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%       17.6%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%        5.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        4.5%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        3.1%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%