Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132020 200916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.5  42.4  41.2  41.2  41.2  44.9  47.5  47.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  85.0  77.0  69.0  47.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  61.7  52.0  60.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  89.0  82.0  83.0  78.0 113.0 109.0 118.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  76.0  77.0  82.0  83.0  88.0  89.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0   6.0   5.0   4.0  24.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        1.6%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       10.9%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        3.3%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        3.3%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%        6.6%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%