Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132020 200917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.1  45.9  41.3  42.5  41.7  46.5  48.5  40.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  51.0  56.0  56.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  86.2 120.0 120.0  68.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  83.0  97.0  96.0 119.0 124.0  97.0  57.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  85.0  90.0  92.0  92.0  91.0  88.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0  20.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        4.9%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%