Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132020 200917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    110.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.1  39.1  34.8  36.9  49.4  43.5  46.0  46.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0  69.6 107.3 115.0 115.0  96.5  76.0  76.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0 117.0 126.0 118.0 120.0  72.0  64.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  83.0  85.0  88.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0 -15.0   4.0   4.0  F  N  N  N  N VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        0.9%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%        7.3%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        2.7%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        2.7%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%