Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132020 200918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    161.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  43.0  39.0  33.4  37.5  26.6  26.6  26.6  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  43.0  88.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.0  79.6  86.0  75.0 100.5 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 104.0 107.0 119.0 125.0 149.0 149.0 149.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  88.0  90.0  85.0  84.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -8.0  -3.0  11.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  F  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons