Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142020 200921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  40.1  31.8  28.9  40.4  45.8  53.6  53.5  U  U  U  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  40.0  34.0  41.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -22.0 -18.0  32.0  41.0  33.0  47.0  63.0 VU VU  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  66.0  69.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  19.0  27.0  27.0  20.0  27.0  16.0  22.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        3.7%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        8.6%       18.0%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%        7.7%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%        7.7%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        6.5%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       11.8%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        3.0%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%