Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142020 200922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    135.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  28.9  32.8  32.7  45.9  49.9  61.9  83.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  70.0  63.0  54.0  30.0  45.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 115.0  83.0  38.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  35.0  33.0  52.0  38.0  91.0  63.0 122.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  24.0  25.0  10.0  16.0   3.0  27.0  72.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.1%        7.6%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h       16.1%       28.3%       22.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       16.3%       12.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.6%       16.3%       12.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       12.9%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       11.9%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%