Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142020 200922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    135.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  33.4  36.0  45.0  47.0  48.1  68.3  93.8  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  43.0  37.0  33.0  37.0  33.0  19.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3  69.3  25.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  32.0  52.0  54.0  77.0  70.0  72.0 123.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  58.0  57.0  60.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.0  25.0  10.0  16.0  12.0   2.0  57.0  91.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%        6.2%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       19.1%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%       10.5%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       10.5%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        8.0%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        6.9%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%