Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142020 200922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    136.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  35.7  39.8  46.1  43.9  57.9  74.3  99.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  35.0  51.0  48.0  37.0  21.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  95.7  44.3  13.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  16.0  68.0  47.0  77.0  70.0 118.0 144.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  67.0  65.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  13.0   2.0   8.0  15.0  45.0  95.0  99.0 VU  U  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.4%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        5.4%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        1.9%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        1.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%